The NY Times find some analysts who say it’s already a growing plague, but I’m not even close to being sold.
American consumers are expected to receive an estimated 1.5 billion unsolicited text messages in 2008, according to San Francisco-based Ferris Research, which tracks mobile messaging trends. That is nearly double what they received in 2006.
Of course that is a small percentage of the overall number of messages: an industry survey showed that consumers in the United States sent and received about 48 billion text messages in December alone. But for many people, who are charged as much as 20 cents for an incoming message or are interrupted in the middle of dinner, even one is too many.
First, I’m not sure I believe those spam estimates. If Ferris is right, then roughly 3 billion spam text messages have been sent in the past three years. That’s about 10 for every man, woman and child in the country — yet I can’t remember getting one and neither can any of the four reporters who sit within shouting distance of me.
Second, even if you assume the numbers are right, four spam texts a year — even at 20 cents apiece — hardly ranks among life’s major announces. It certainly isn’t something that deserves a 1,200-word story. Four spam texts a year equals about 80 cents of costs and 30 seconds of time.
Third, even if the problem grows, it’s certainly not going to reach the level of spam e-mail. Why? Because e-mail supports rich visual ads that can link directly to online stores where you can purchase whatever the spammer is selling. Text messages support a few dozen words of black text and nothing else.
Does anyone honestly think they can make a text pitch so compelling that someone will remember to purchase a product later or even dial a number from the text message? It’s absurd.
Don’t get me wrong. I do think mobile advertising will take off when companies figure out how to deliver targeted ads to likely customers as they are walking by stores. But I don’t worry too much about text spam.
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