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An Austin-based consultancy called DisplaySearch has just released a new study that suggests booming HDTV sales will soon stagnate if manufacturers don’t start rolling out some big improvements to their products.
Falling prices alone have been enough to spur huge revenue increases over the past few years, the study says, but prices have gotten low enough (and HDTV penetration has gotten high enough) that the model is beginning to break down.
Our research shows that the growth of the market will peak between 2009 and 2011. Thereafter, growth will be limited without the development of new, enhanced features for TVs, such as higher resolutions, expanded broadband infrastructure, internet connectivity, versatile applications and interactive capabilities to meet the needs of the connected digital home of the future where PC and TV are synonymous.
Admittedly, I couldn’t find a copy of the full report online, but I’m skeptical about the claim.
If memory serves me right, only about a quarter of American homes have HDTVs right now, so it’s hard to see how further price reductions (combined with the slow but steady increase in HD programming) wouldn’t keep sales growing for some time.
What’s more, the vast majority of American homes have more than one TV, and once you get used to the HDTV in the living room, it’s really hard to settle for standard definition up in the bedroom…
That said, I agree whole-heartedly with the argument that HDTVs can spur even further sales by continual improvement. And they have been.
Almost every big manufacturer updates models at least once a year. And every year, each model surpasses its predecessor.
But there’s still plenty of room for improvement — improvement that would be dramatic enough to inspire people to replace fairly new HDTVs.
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